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The results distribute in a markedly nonrandom way.

The 1995 NPTS Courseware Interpreting Estimates - Sampling Error site shows that sampling error follows naturally from drawing out a part of a population for creation of a sample.

Nate Silver reviews a notorious recent IBD/TIPP polls of doctors thusly: "that special pollster which is both biased and inept.." (Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight: Politics Done Right at ibdtipp-doctors-poll-is-not-trustworthy, 9/16/2009).

The HIP-Sampling Error site defines Sampling Error as "That part of the total estimation error of a parameter caused by the random nature of the sample" where a Random Sample is "A sample that is arrived at by selecting sample units such that each possible unit has a fixed and determinate probability of selection." In layman's terms, this means every sample unit has the same likelihood of being included in the sample, yet there's still error when making an inference about the population. IT&Society: A Web Journal Studying How Technology Affects Society, Volume 1, Issue 4, Spring 2003.

These polls are so pervasive in modern life that the need to accomplish this is self-evident. No citizen should wander into the public informational arena lacking the equipment for protection against false and misleading sales pitches. Golf Web Wire Services, - Is the Augusta National poll misleading?

In that spirit, I offer this piece as a shield against the bad and ugly of the survey world at large. Renka °Polling Links: ° Blogs and Commentary on Polls ° Data Sources ° Election Polls ° Embarrassments in polling history ° General Sources for Polls and Surveys ° How to interpret and judge polls ° New York Times Polling Standards ° Numeracy ° Numbskull abuses with numbers ° Push Polls ° Skepticism ° Specific polls (all "good" ones, of course) ° Statistical basis of polling ° Ugly Poll List Polling Links: Next down; Top Blogs and Commentary on polls: ° Mystery Pollster and Mystery Pollster - Pollsters by Mark Blumenthal is excellent for "Demystifying the Science and Art of Political Polling." Data Sources: ° NORC--The General Social Survey at the University of Chicago; very widely used data source, abundant documentation ° Center for Political Studies at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor - gateway to several major sources ° Public Opinion Quarterly - journal devoted to methodology and results of public opinion surveys CESSDA Home Page from Council of European Social Science Data Archives ° National Network of State Polls - "the largest available collection of state-level data," from the data archive of the Odum Institute for Research in Social Science ° Real Clear Politics - Polls from John Mc Intyre and Tom Bevan Election Polls: ° The Cook Political Report's National Poll - biweekly election-year polling, from Associated Press and Ipsos Public Affairs (also see Ipsos News Center - Polls, Public Opinion, Research & News) ° American Research Group Inc. 20 Questions A Journalist Should Ask About Poll Results, Third Edition.

TIPP does polls available only to IBD, which produces deeply biased reports based on TIPP surveys with no direct or full link to that surveyor's questions or methods of acquiring its samples.

With just a little knowledge and practice, any student can master the distinctions of good and bad, or bad and ugly public polls.

Zogby International Statistical basis of polling: ° Statistics Every Writer Should Know from Robert ° Statistics Every Writer Should Know - Margin of Error ° Statistics Every Writer Should Know - Standard Deviation ° Statistics Every Writer Should Know - Mean ° Statistics Every Writer Should Know - Median ° Sample Sizes ° Calculate a Sample ° The Stats Board ° Statistical Assessment Service Ugly Poll List (I am always looking for these characters.) Opinion Center is from Opinion Center.com; these characters take the cake for slanted and biased questions.

Top Notes This practice is noticeably violated in recent years by Investor's Business Daily and their polling agency, Technometrica Institute of Policy and Politics (IBD/TIPP).

is a clearinghouse site ° Polling - Public Opinion Online - "An independent, nonpartisan resource on trends in American public opinion " ° NAES 2004 Home Page (National Annenberg Election Survey ) from The Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania ° Presidential Trial Heats: A Daily Time Series and Documentation for time series extraction from James Stimson, University of North Carolina Embarrassments in polling history - Literary Digest of 1936 and other royal screw-ups: ° The Seattle Times Political Classroom Political Primer Polls ° Oops!! But there are others as well.) General Sources for Polls and Surveys: ° Copernicus Election Watch: Public Opinion Polls ° National Council on Public Polls ° The archive of polls surveys -- The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research ° Public Opinion from University of Michigan Documents Center ° Ruy Teixeira - Center for American Progress has weekly polling columns; parent site is Home - Center for American Progress with Ruy's columns shown under heading of "Public Opinion Watch" ° SSLIS Public Opinion Guide from Yale University Social Science Libraries and Information Services (SSLIS) ° PRI - Links to Public Opinion Research ° Public Opinion Polling in Canada (BP-371E) ° Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life - American Religious Landscapes and Political Attitudes (in 2004) How to interpret and judge polls: ° The Ten Commandments of Polling by Ken Blake, UNC-Chapel Hill ° 20 Questions A Journalist Should Ask from National Council on Public Polls (NCPP) ° A Press Warning on Push Polls from National Council on Public Polls ° Statement About Internet Polls from National Council on Public Polls - "there is a consensus that many web-based surveys are completely unreliable.

Indeed, to describe them as "polls" is to misuse that term." ° NCPP Principles of Disclosure - a statement on ethics of proper polling ° Howard W.




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